Just 24 hours after identifying the path of Tropical Storm Eloise, the South African Weather Service (Saws) has issued an updated forecast on Wednesday – revealing that Mzansi is now highly likely to be impacted by ‘extreme rainfall’ towards the later stages of this weekend. However, it’s understood that the worst of the weather is reserved for Mozambique.

Latest weather forecasts for Mozambique and Madagascar

“Eloise” is currently wreaking havoc in northern Madagascar. Once it passes over the warm waters of the Indian Ocean, it is expected to reach ‘Tropical Cyclone’ intensity on Saturday, just before making landfall around the Vilankulos region of Mozambique later in the evening (of 23 January 2021).

Here’s the current trajectory of the tropical storm, as of Wednesday 20 January – Photo: Supplied

Wind speeds over 200km/h are expected to tear through the eastern coastlines, with towns and villages in the ‘impact zone’ fearing the worst. Storm surges are also set to put lives in danger and cause ‘significant damage’ to infrastructure.

Tropical Storm Eloise forecast: Where in South Africa will it make landfall?

Extreme rainfall caused by Tropical Storm Eloise:

  • South Africa’s eastern Lowveld
  • Regions of Limpopo and Mpumalanga where provincial and national borders converge
  • Northern KZN
  • Outside of SA, southern Mozambique is likely to bear the brunt of the storm
  • This is expected to fall on Sunday and Monday, from 24 – 25 January
  • Upwards of 200mm is likely to fall to the east to the east of Nelspruit, with Phalaborwa and Giyani bracing for a 150mm deluge.
Tropical Storm Eloise
The 24-hour cumulative rainfall forecast for north-west South Africa, from 24 – 25 January – Photo: Ventusky

Weaker rainfall caused by Tropical Storm Eloise:

  • Gauteng
  • North West
  • This is expected to fall on Monday and Tuesday next week, from 25 – 26 January.
  • Northern parts of Gauteng will get a maximum of 15mm. This rainfall is relatively serene, as the storm dramatically winds down.
The 24-hour cumulative rainfall forecast for Gauteng and North West, from 25 – 26 January – Photo: Ventusky

SAWS issued statement on ‘extreme rainfall’ for SA

“When Tropical Storm Eloise makes landfall, a storm surge, excessive rain, and very destructive winds (166 – 213 km/h) are expected along the Mozambique coastline and adjacent interior. After making landfall, Eloise is expected to track further south-westwards towards the border of South Africa and Mozambique.”

“While overland, weakening is expected to take place. However, extreme rainfall is still expected over southern Mozambique, the eastern Lowveld, and the borders of Limpopo and Mpumalanga, as well as northern KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa on Sunday, 24 January 2021 and continuing into Monday, 25 January 2021.”

“Possible impacts as a result of all this rain include widespread flooding, damage to roads and bridges as well as possible displacement of affected communities. This system is likely to result in Gauteng and North West also receiving rainfall on Monday and Tuesday, but at this stage, such rainfall is not expected to be of an extreme or damaging nature.”

Saws statement

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